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Cubs vs Tigers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 23

Cubs vs Tigers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 23 article feature image

Pictured: Tarik Skubal. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Cubs vs. Tigers Odds

Wednesday, August 23
1:10 p.m. ET
Cubs Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-104 / -118
Tigers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-104 / -118
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Tarik Skubal, upon returning from injury, has been on one of the most impressive runs in baseball and is set to face a team that struggles against left-handed pitching. Meanwhile, the Cubs will send Jameson Taillon, who has been a bit of a disappointment in Chicago, to the mound.

The Tigers, shockingly, have hit right-handers well and can equal the Cubs out of the bullpen. With that being the case, the Tigers moneyline holds solid value.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Chicago Cubs

Taillon has been horrible this season. For a short time after the All-Star Break, he was looking like a solid, middle-of-the-rotation arm, but he's since fallen back and has a 6.00 ERA over 21 August innings. On the season, he has a 5.56 ERA against a 5.26 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.2 mph, but his Barrel Rate (10.2%) is up nearly 2% since last year. His Hard-Hit Rate (38.4%) is about average, but his strikeout rate is below 20%. On the plus side, his walk rate is only 6.8%.

The Cubs haven't been able to hit lefties this month, so Skubal should have a strong outing. Chicago has an 80 wRC+ with a 29% strikeout rate and a sub-6% walk rate off of southpaws this month. The Cubs also have a .675 OPS, which isn't very good. Chicago also only has four active bats with an xwOBA over .280.

In relief, the Cubs have a 4.48 xFIP with a 10.7% walk rate. Michael Fulmer, Mark Leiter Jr. and Julian Merryweather are Chicago's only relievers under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so if Taillon allows runs, as he's been prone to lately, the Cubs will have to go into the weaker portion of their 'pen.

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Detroit Tigers

Skubal has exceled, and it looks like he's going to continue to do so. His 3.76 ERA doesn't tell the whole story as he boasts a 2.63 xERA with a strikeout rate above 28% and a walk rate below 5% — elite numbers. Yes, his Average Exit Velocity is higher than Taillon’s, but Skubal has a 2.70 ERA over 16 2/3 innings this month.

Tarik Skubal continues to use more 4-seamers, with the changeup being effective. The slider elicits whiffs, but not on Friday.

Before FRI:
-4-Seam: 13.2% SwK
-Changeup: 17.4% SwK

FRI vs. CLE:
-4-Seam: 20% SwK
-Changeup: 26% SwK

Solid vs. LHH, but needs the changeup vs. RHH

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) August 19, 2023

Additionally, the Tigers have shown they can hit righties. They own a 120 wRC+ off right-handers this month and boast a .799 OPS. They also have seven bats with an xwOBA over .315 — a tremendous advantage over the Cubs.

Detroit's relievers carry a 4.49 xFIP with an 11.8% walk rate. However, Skubal should go deep into this game and lessen the strain on the bullpen.

Cubs vs. Tigers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Taillon is simply a worse pitcher than Skubal right now, and the Tigers are better at hitting righties than the Cubs are at hitting lefties. With that being the case, expect Detroit to hit Taillon early and get to the weaker parts of the Cubs’ bullpen. Take Detroit at -115, and play it to -135.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline | Play to -135

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